Search Results for Bayestag:www.andrewjaffe.net,2023:/MT5//feed/Bayes2023-09-29T07:19:26ZMovable Type 5.2.616116Knightian Uncertaintytag:www.andrewjaffe.net,2017:/blog//1.5782017-05-03T15:21:50Z2017-05-18T11:33:11ZAndrewhttp://www.andrewjaffe.net/blog
[Update: I have fixed some broken links, and modified the discussion of QBism and the recent paper by Chris Fuchs— thanks to Chris himself for taking the time to read and find my mistakes!] For some reason, I’ve come across...
SOLE Survivortag:www.andrewjaffe.net,2017:/blog//1.5772017-01-24T11:57:38Z2017-01-25T09:17:50ZAndrewhttp://www.andrewjaffe.net/blog
I recently finished my last term lecturing our second-year Quantum Mechanics course, which I taught for five years. It’s a required class, a mathematical introduction to one of the most important set of ideas in all of physics, and really...
I think I'm a Bayesian. Am I wrong?tag:www.andrewjaffe.net,2012:/blog//1.5242012-01-16T21:43:07Z2013-09-30T21:13:08ZAndrewhttp://www.andrewjaffe.net/blog
Continuing my recent, seemingly interminable, series of too-technical posts on probability theory… To understand this one you’ll need to remember Bayes’ Theorem, and the resulting need for a Bayesian statistician to come up with an appropriate prior distribution to describe...
The Controversy about Hypothesis Testingtag:www.andrewjaffe.net,2011:/blog//1.5202011-12-20T03:46:48Z2012-08-16T12:22:03ZAndrewhttp://www.andrewjaffe.net/blog
I spent a quick couple of days last week at the The Controversy about Hypothesis Testing meeting in Madrid. The topic of the meeting was indeed the question of “hypothesis testing”, which I addressed in a post a few months...
Kind of Bayesiantag:www.andrewjaffe.net,2011:/blog//1.5082011-07-15T17:23:19Z2012-09-21T07:44:06ZAndrewhttp://www.andrewjaffe.net/blog
[Apologies — this is long, technical, and there are too few examples. I am putting it out for commentary more than anything else…] In some recent articles and blog posts (including one in response to astronomer David Hogg), Columbia University...
Bayes in the World II: Million Pound Droptag:www.andrewjaffe.net,2010:/blog//1.4852010-12-17T09:56:02Z2012-08-30T08:16:08ZAndrewhttp://www.andrewjaffe.net/blog
Embarrassing update: as pointed out by Vladimir Nesov in the comments, all of my quantitative points below are incorrect. To maximize expected winnings, you should bet on whichever alternative you judge to be most likely. If you have a...
Bayes in the World I: Wikileakstag:www.andrewjaffe.net,2010:/blog//1.4842010-12-16T17:29:40Z2012-09-10T11:59:53ZAndrewhttp://www.andrewjaffe.net/blog
I've come across a couple bits of popular/political culture that give me the opportunity to discuss one of my favorite topics: the uses and abuses of probability theory. The first is piece by Nate Silver of the New York Times'...
Bayes and Blake at Bunhilltag:www.andrewjaffe.net,2010:/blog//1.4402010-01-03T19:51:41Z2012-09-03T14:19:46ZAndrewhttp://www.andrewjaffe.net/blog
One of my holiday treks this year was across town to visit Bunhill Fields, final resting place of two of my favorite Londoners: William Blake and Thomas Bayes. Blake is of course one of the most famous poets in the...
Doctors, Deep Fields and Dark Mattertag:www.andrewjaffe.net,2009:/blog//1.4392009-12-19T11:39:35Z2012-09-27T08:16:20ZAndrewhttp://www.andrewjaffe.net/blog
Luckily, not all the astrophysics news this week was so bad. First, and most important, two of our Imperial College Astrophysics postgraduate students, Stuart Sale and Paniez Paykari, passed their PhD viva exams, and so are on their ways to...
Bayesian Methods in Cosmologytag:www.andrewjaffe.net,2009:/blog//1.4362009-12-11T20:46:01Z2012-09-24T08:27:08ZAndrewhttp://www.andrewjaffe.net/blog
The perfect stocking-stuffer for that would-be Bayesian cosmologist you’ve been shopping for: As readers here will know, the Bayesian view of probability is just that probabilities are statements about our knowledge of the world, and thus eminently suited to use...
The Measurement Problemtag:www.andrewjaffe.net,2009:/blog//1.3932009-03-19T17:41:40Z2012-09-25T08:00:43ZAndrewhttp://www.andrewjaffe.net/blog
OK, this is going to be a very long post. About something I don’t pretend to be expert in. But it is science, at least. A couple of weeks ago, Radio 4’s highbrow “In Our Time” tackled the so-called “Measurement...
Bayesian Inference in the NY Timestag:www.andrewjaffe.net,2009:/blog//1.3852009-01-11T11:51:31Z2012-08-31T09:41:46ZAndrewhttp://www.andrewjaffe.net/blog
In today’s Sunday NY Times Magazine, there’s a long article by psychologist Steven Pinker, on “Personal Genomics”, the growing ability for individuals to get information about their genetic inheritance. He discusses the evolution of psychological traits versus intelligence, and highlights...
Opening the boxtag:www.andrewjaffe.net,2007:/blog//1.2792007-04-14T10:44:28Z2010-01-03T19:26:13ZAndrewhttp://www.andrewjaffe.net/blog
This post is a work in progress, but I’ve decided to post it in its unfinished state. Comments and questions welcome! This week I went to a seminar on the new results from the MiniBooNE experiment given here at Imperial...
<![CDATA[Logical Proof, Scientific Proof, Religious “Proof”]]>tag:www.andrewjaffe.net,2007:/blog//1.2652007-02-27T23:03:19Z2016-12-18T05:14:18ZAndrewhttp://www.andrewjaffe.net/blog
With yesterday’s article on “Faith” (vs Science) in the Guardian, and today’s London debate between bioligist Lewis Wolpert and the pseudorational William Lane Craig (previewed on the BBC’s Today show this morning), the UK seems to be the hotbed of...
The Shape of the Universetag:www.andrewjaffe.net,2006:/blog//1.2422006-12-12T17:21:40Z2012-08-31T09:39:02ZAndrewhttp://www.andrewjaffe.net/blog
The work that I’ve been doing with my student is featured on the cover of this week’s New Scientist. Unfortunately, a subscription is necessary to read the full article online, but if you do manage to find it on the...
What We Talk About When We Talk About Probabilitytag:www.andrewjaffe.net,2006:/blog//1.1812006-04-28T14:29:36Z2010-01-03T19:27:29ZAndrewhttp://www.andrewjaffe.net/blog
In his most recent post, Cosmic Variance’s Mark Trodden talks about one of the presentations we both saw at last week’s meeting in Ishcia, where he explains one of the hot new techniques for analyzing cosmological data, the (so-called) Bayesian...